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Leon Liao's avatar

In reality, the failures in the Western battery manufacturing industry extend well beyond the 14 start-ups Christopher Chico highlighted, such as Northvolt. What many people have already forgotten is Tesla’s 4680 battery project.

Five years ago, Elon Musk projected that Tesla would reach 100 GWh of 4680 battery capacity by 2022, enough to support roughly 1.3 million vehicles. But a Reuters investigation at the end of 2023 showed that actual output from the Austin factory was running far below that target, with Tesla internally described as being stuck in “battery production hell.” This shows that the project was not canceled; rather, the most difficult part of the process, especially large-scale manufacturing and yield control, fell far short of the original plan.

Although Tesla’s large battery project did not fail in the same way Northvolt did, through a broken funding chain and corporate collapse, it still went through a very typical form of partial failure, or delayed delivery, in which the technical logic was sound but the manufacturing ramp proved far slower than expected. The project is not dead. It has instead shifted from an originally over-promised revolutionary project into one that is still moving forward, but looks much more like a slow, difficult traditional manufacturing effort than the market first imagined. Tesla was simply more fortunate than those 14 start-ups such as Northvolt, because it had an automotive business, cash flow, brand strength, capital-market access, and an external supplier system to absorb the shock.

What makes Christopher Chico’s piece valuable is that he does not reduce the repeated failures of Western battery companies to slogans such as “China’s subsidies are too strong,” “China overcapacity,” or “the market environment was too weak.” Instead, he brings the discussion back to the most fundamental questions in manufacturing: Can the production line actually run? Can yields improve over time? Can cash flow hold up? Does management have the ability to land a complex industrial project in the right sequence and at the right pace?

That said, his final conclusion, that all five categories of failure ultimately come down to insufficient execution and insufficient patience, is still too simplistic. From the perspective of China’s lithium battery industry experience, the real difference is not that China succeeded merely because it was “more hardworking” or “more patient.” Rather, China succeeded through an entire organizational system that is much more closely aligned with the actual laws of industrial development.

First, Chinese companies did not begin by fixating on the ultimate end-state scale. They first built process capability through real orders that kept expanding over time. And the reason Chinese firms were able to do this is not because they were somehow naturally more rational. It is because behind them stood a huge domestic market, dense trial-and-error scenarios with customers, fast-feedback supply chain networks, and EV and energy-storage customers willing to iterate alongside them. In other words, China’s “patience” was not an abstract virtue. It was patience generated by an industrial ecosystem.

Second, the core of the Chinese experience is not the success of a single factory, but the fact that the entire supply chain climbed the ramp together. In the battery industry, yield, cost, performance, and delivery capability are never determined by a single cell maker alone. They are pulled upward collectively by upstream materials, equipment, structural components, cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, separators, BMS, pack integration, and EV and storage customers. One major reason China was able to achieve scale more easily is that large numbers of suppliers, equipment makers, customers, local governments, and engineering teams were all operating within the same geographic and institutional space, allowing for extremely fast coordination. The Chinese experience shows that real execution capability is often the execution capability of an entire industrial network, not just the capability of a single CEO.

In the end, competition in the battery industry is not fundamentally about who invents the technology first. It is about who can first turn technology into industrial capability that can be replicated continuously at scale.

Lithium Battery Technology's avatar

Looks like RecycLiCo was smart.

They have recycling patents with up to 99% recovery.

Now they are also focused on refining.

Wild to see as the dust settles RecycLiCo is still moving forward.

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