brilliant article explains lithium industry supply chain perfectly. we can also look at it from the lens of Nassim Taleb lens fooled by randomness - China did not take into account the upstream would be squeezed they extrapolated the current situation of industry - the lindy effect. the randomness of upstream squeeze
Interesting Taleb angle. The “upstream squeeze” looks less like pure randomness and more like a classic fragility test, when incentives and leverage meet a shock, weak assumptions get exposed fast. The Lindy point also fits, extrapolating today’s stability as if it’s durable.
Probably. If prices keep climbing, I would not be surprised to see a new wave of investment into lithium mines and lithium companies.
Battery demand is still rising fast, and the mining cycle is structurally boom-bust. Miners tend to invest aggressively when prices are high, then pull back when prices are low. That stop-start behavior is exactly how you end up with supply gaps later, which then push prices back up.
brilliant article explains lithium industry supply chain perfectly. we can also look at it from the lens of Nassim Taleb lens fooled by randomness - China did not take into account the upstream would be squeezed they extrapolated the current situation of industry - the lindy effect. the randomness of upstream squeeze
Interesting Taleb angle. The “upstream squeeze” looks less like pure randomness and more like a classic fragility test, when incentives and leverage meet a shock, weak assumptions get exposed fast. The Lindy point also fits, extrapolating today’s stability as if it’s durable.
Really cool perspective! Do you think this will lead towards more long-term offtake deals?
A fun time to be in the mining space, some of my thoughts on the Mining Renaissance and Lithium specifically: https://gennaroliccardo.substack.com/p/the-mining-renaissance-volume-1-lithium
Probably. If prices keep climbing, I would not be surprised to see a new wave of investment into lithium mines and lithium companies.
Battery demand is still rising fast, and the mining cycle is structurally boom-bust. Miners tend to invest aggressively when prices are high, then pull back when prices are low. That stop-start behavior is exactly how you end up with supply gaps later, which then push prices back up.
Thanks for sharing your interesting article!